When it comes to a country’s overall economic development, various areas must be explored. These areas and factors can be internal or external, each of which can affect a nation’s currency. As it pertains to currency specifically, one only needs to look to the given exchange rate.
An exchange rate is, more or less, the most important area affecting currencies on a global level. The formula by which one currency can be converted to another is influenced by a wide array of dynamics. Most of those dynamics can be condensed here, and are very interesting to take note of.
Let’s find out what causes exchange rates to change in the economy:
1. Inflation
Inflation is one of the main factors on what causes exchange rates to change. Exchange rates in any given country can range in differing peaks and troughs.
However, inflation is one of the most significant areas directly affecting this formula. Countries that possess a lower inflation rate will often see their home currency rise in value. The opposite can also be said here as well.
A nation that has a higher inflation rate will see their currency’s value mitigate in value. Depending on the nature of a trading relationship, the exchange rate can be impacted positively or negatively. That is why some of the most desirable currency pairs have not been altered in some time, leading to favourable currency exchange rates.
2. Interest Rates
If inflation is one of the key factors determining a change in an exchange rate, interest is a close second. In essence, a change in a country’s interest rate will more than likely impact a specific currency value. As soon as an interest rate trends upwards, it can affect other adjacent areas, such as currency trade potential.
In addition, a country can expect to see their own currency rise in value, if interest rates go up. This may grant various lenders the possibility of acquiring more foreign capital. Should this occur, the exchange rate is poised to rise at the same time. The opposite should also be expected, if interest rates remain low.
3. Debt
It is generally acknowledged around the world that some countries are wealthier than others. As it pertains to those nations that have accrued debt, these financial woes can affect an exchange rate. In some cases, a country that possesses a large amount of debt can be seen as off-putting to those in other countries.
Converting one’s home currency into another, as a result, can reflect poorly in terms of value. Although it is not as widely recognized as other key factors such as inflation, debt ratings are still incredibly crucial. Market trends that affect a country’s debt rating should also be considered, when taking into account an exchange rate.
4. Market analysis
Investors and traders alike are always searching for factors that can aid their trading inclinations. As it pertains to the exchange rate, speculation is one of the most significant areas to investigate. If, for example, one country’s currency is expected to rise in value, demand will increase in the future.
Should this speculation turn into a tangible reality, the currency in question will reflect positively in the market. Of course, when this occurs, it will also be encouragingly reflected in the exchange rate as well. It takes a ton of research, and smart decision-making, for speculation to pay off as it turns out!
5. Political Stability
A nation’s exchange rate is not entirely dependent on economic developments. Internal factors, such as political events, can play a huge role in determining how an exchange rate can change. For example, a country that is in the midst of political upheaval can be seen as risky by investors or traders.
The more turmoil a country experiences politically, the more its currency is affected in terms of value. Inevitably, this leads to a depreciation in exchange rates, and can become much worse if not acted upon. It is important for a nation to have a strong political outlook, if the exchange rate is to be strongly reflected in kind.
6. Recessions
If economic developments falter to a significant point, a nation can experience a recession for a period of time. All areas pertaining to the economy will drastically be affected for the worse as a result. The exchange rate is one of these areas, in which the domestic currency value depreciates accordingly.
7. Trade
All nations will have a specified ratio of export prices to import prices. This is known as the terms of trade, and it can affect the exchange rate depending on a wide array of factors. If a country’s terms of trade is high, export prices will rise quicker than its import counterpart. The exchange rate, as a result, will positively be impacted.
Exchange rate fluctuations are constantly changing, due to a myriad of aspects and characteristics. Each are taken into account with great detail, in order to produce a favourable result for an interested party!
